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July Newsletter – Are prices falling?

Photo by Tasos Mansour on Unsplash

On Sunday night we saw a bright fireball falling from the sky. It was a meteor and many others in North Texas witnessed it fall, then explode when reaching the earth’s atmosphere. It was unexpected and beautiful. As a skywatcher, I was happy to have observed it. What about our real estate markets? Are prices starting to fall? Is more balance coming to the market? There are national headlines claiming that the market is cooling. Is that true for North Texas?

As you will see from the charts below, prices are still rapidly appreciating. Mortgage rates and inventory are still at historic lows. Demand is still very strong. Perhaps the rate of appreciation is slowing in North Texas, however, home prices are still higher than ever. The National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index for June 2021 shows that, the National HPA average 15.6% which is up 6.5% from a year ago. For perspective check out their chart:

Prices have soared since a year ago. Denton and Collin Counties now have median sales prices of $400,000 and above. All four counties have shown double-digit appreciation YoY. Here is the market data:

Median Sales Price

JUNE 2021
 

Denton County
$400,000 | +23.2%

Collin County
$440,000 | +22.2%

Dallas County
$330,000 | +22.2%

Tarrant County
$310,000 | +21.6%

Median Price Per Sq Ft

JUNE 2021
 

Denton County
$179 | +24.3%

Collin County
$179 | +24.3%

Dallas County
$182 | +23.8%

Tarrant County
$160 | +22.1%

Months of Inventory

JUNE 2021
 

Denton County
0.9 | -59.1%

Collin County
0.9 | -60.9%

Dallas County
1.2 | -57.1%

Tarrant County
1.0 | -47.4%

Days on Market

JUNE 2021
 

Denton County
5 | -76.2%

Collin County
5 | -80.0%

Dallas County
6 | -70.0%

Tarrant County
5 | -66.7%

Volume

JUNE 2021
 

Denton County
1,604 | -11.4%

Collin County
1,960 | +3.8%

Dallas County
2,603 | +5.0%

Tarrant County
2,735 | -6.6%

Median % of Original Price

JUNE 2021
 

Denton County
104.8% | +6.4%

Collin County
105.5% | +7.9%

Dallas County
100.9% | +3.2%

Tarrant County
103.6% | +4.8%

Takeaways

If you look back at the history of our markets, you can see that June and July are typically when our markets peak. This is the first time in our markets that all four counties have a median price over list price. Last year the median sales price in Denton County was $324,725 and today is $400,000. The number of days on the market for the typical property in North Texas is 5. That means most homes are selling in less than a week of exposure. This is still a very very hot market. Until the market shifts, inventory increases, demand decreases, or mortgage rates increase, the market cooling will be slow if at all. We will continue to watch and give you the numbers for next month.

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