January Newsletter-2019 Year in Review

Photo by David McBee from Pexels

“And now we welcome the new year. Full of things that have never been.”

Rainer Maria Rilke

We hope that your 2020 is off to a great start! As we enter another year, we wanted to look back at 2019 and review the year. We went a little more in-depth with some of the statistical data and have some different graphs for you. This year we continued to see population growth as inventories are beginning to increase. Some interesting stats of note:

  1. Tarrant County had the largest number of sales in 2019
  2. All four counties show slight price increases in 2019
  3. All four counties have increased supply
  4. All four counties have bank-owned (foreclosure) of less than 1%.

 

Here are the numbers and stats for 2019: 

 

 

 

Overall the markets are flattening with slight increases for the year.  We are not in a down cycle. As the Texas economy remains strong and population growth continues we do not anticipate a market decline.  That said, unforeseen things can impact the market, thus we will continue to provide you with monthly updates and information. 

**Please note that these statistics are general market trends and are not considered to be used to determine the value of your specific home**

Please let us know if there is are other metrics or information you would like us to cover for North Texas.

Seasonal Changes- October Newsletter

House in Fall

Last month, I was complaining about how it was still so very hot and I was ready for the cooler fall weather. Well, yesterday we walked around a large 70-acre equine property when it was wet, misty and 45 degrees. I loved it! We are already getting a freeze warning for tonight. That is early in Texas. Some around here say we just skip fall and just go from summer to winter. Some days it certainly feels that way, but I have lived here my whole life and I know that it never stays hot forever and it never stays cold forever. Changes do come, just as they do in the real estate markets.

Real estate markets go and down. They fluctuate. This can really be seen in the interactive charts below when looking at the ups and downs from month to month. To look at a broader picture of our markets check out this chart of the real estate price cycles in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro area. You can see that we have only had two big downturns. One in the ’80s which coincides with the Savings and Loan Crisis and the second on started in 2007 with the housing crisis.

The markets also change with the seasons. If it feels slower right now, that is because the markets typically do slow month to month in the fall. Looking at our markets of Denton, Collin, Dallas, and Tarrant counties there is a slowing month to month but when compared to the same time last year they are still increasing. The pace of appreciation has slowed but prices are still up YoY. We also wanted to show you the more rapid price appreciation in our more northern and rural markets of Cooke and Grayson counties. See the Cooke and Grayson County charts below. Don’t forget to hover over the charts as they are interactive.

Median Sales Price Trends

SEPTEMBER 2019
Denton County
$311,318 | +3.5%

Collin County
$329,000 | +0.9%

Dallas County
$249,000 | +3.8%

Tarrant County
$240,000 | +4.3%

Median Price Per Square Foot

SEPTEMBER 2019
Denton County
$140 | +1.4%

Collin County
$139 | +1.5%

Dallas County
$140 | +6.1%

Tarrant County
$126 | +5.0%

Median Days on Market

SEPTEMBER 2019
Denton County
34 | +25.9%

Collin County
36 | +20.0%

Dallas County
25 | +38.9%

Tarrant County
21 | +16.7%

Months Supply of Inventory

SEPTEMBER 2019
Denton County
3.0 | -9.1%

Collin County
3.3 | -13.2%

Dallas County
3.4 | +9.7%

Tarrant County
2.4 | -7.7%

Volume- Number of Sales

SEPTEMBER 2019
Denton County
1,225 | +7.2%

Collin County
1,370 | +14.2%

Dallas County
2,037 | +9.0%

Tarrant County
2,270 | +1.8%
 
 

Cooke & Grayson Counties

SEPTEMBER 2019
Cooke County
$210,000 | -1.1%

Grayson County
$185,450 | +7.2%
Cooke and Grayson counties are more rural markets with less population and fewer sales.  For these reason, they do fluctuate more.  There has been a strong increase in the median sales price for both counties within the past three year.  Cooke County sale prices have flattened out.  With the  population growth and price increases  in the North Dallas area, the demand for more affordable houses and the desire for more space have increased the prices in these counties.  
 

Interests have been dropping over the past year and increased slightly last week. With interest rates so low, refinances and housing purchases have been holding strong. Here is a look at the rates over the past year:

Mortgage Rates


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Happy Halloween!

We hope you have plans for a safe and Happy Halloween! As a member of the Pilot Point Chamber of Commerce, the DW Slater Company will be at our local Trunk or Treat. If you are local, stop by and we will give you a treat!

Check out these great reads: 

Does the market really change every seven years? – Sacramento Appraisal Blog

5 Scary Movies that Describe and Appraiser’s Job – Birmingham Appraisal Blog

The Penny… A Classic Example of Cost Not Equaling Value– Cleveland Appraisal Blog

Chick-fil-A and Starbucks Distributor or Move California Headquarters to Texas– CoStar

 

 

September Newsletter-Fall, Lamenting & Markets

Fall Leaves and Trees

Fall is officially here!– But it sure doesn’t yet feel like it in North Texas. It is still so very hot. Today David was headed to his last appraisal appointment. He looked at his device to see the temperature outside felt like 106 degrees. Whew! We are well on our way to having the record for the hottest September in North Texas. Not only is it still hot, but it also does NOT look like the picture above. Everything is still very green. As I type, the cicadas are singing their summer song which has long since lost its appeal. I need a new playlist. It is time for the weather to cool, the cicadas to end their concert and the summer wardrobe to change from summer sandals to boots & sweaters. I love the fall. I love the cooler, crisp weather. I love the fall colors and just that bit of change in the air. But, alas, I cannot rush it. It will eventually make its way here and my summer lamenting will be just a distant memory. Until then, I will keep cranking the A/C, and wait for the change. Speaking of change, do we see any change in our real estate markets?

Our markets started out the summer slowing and were almost flattening last month. However, prices are still rising- just at a much slower pace. In May we discussed the pace moving from a sports car to a tractor. We are maintaining this tractor pace as prices are still up 1-4 % YoY. This month, we are showing the seasonally adjusted charts for our main four counties. This better depicts the slowing pace of appreciation.

Median Sales Price

AUGUST 2019

Denton County
$315,000 | +0.3% 

Collin County
$339,990 | +1.5% 

Dallas County
$248,500 | +3.5% 

Tarrant County
$247,000 | +6.2%

Supply

AUGUST 2019

Denton County
3.2 | -3.0% 

Collin County
3.6 | -5.3% 

Dallas County
3.4 | +13.3% 

Tarrant County
2.5 | -3.8%

Days on Market

AUGUST 2019
 

Denton County
29 | +31.8%

Collin County

34 | +25.9%

Dallas County

20 | +11.1%

Tarrant County

18 | +28.6%

Volume

AUGUST 2019
 

Denton County
1,620 | +9.7%

Collin County

1,615 | +2.9%

Dallas County

2,318 | -3.2%

Tarrant County

2,658 | -3.2%

Although prices are still rising, you can see the signs of slowing as days on the market are longer and supply is increasing. Volume has not declined yet. Mortgage rates continue to remain very low which has kept this train moving. Demand is still high. New construction is trying to keep up with the demand. is typical for the market to slow in the fall. We will be watching these trends for next month.

In the meantime, check out some of these interesting reads from this month:

As always, if you have a question about real estate appraisals or need appraisal services, please feel free to contact us at www.dwslaterco.com

Geckos & Summer Housing- July Newsletter

gecko

It’s that time of year when the heat can really begin to bother you. Many parts of the country have been experiencing a heatwave. I am so very thankful to Willis Carrier, inventor of the modern-day air conditioner. I have lived in Texas my entire life but could not do it without AC! That being said, last week our AC stopped working. Yikes! Not when the heat index is over 100 degrees! Fortunately, the repairman was able to come quickly and get it up and running again. What was the culprit? What caused my AC to stop cooling? A gecko! I guess because of the more than usual rainfall we’ve had, there has been an abundance of geckos at our place. Four or five every night on our porch. Evidently, three of them decided to crawl into our outside unit and one of them crawled into a space that shorted out the system as well as himself. In fact, there were three gecko casualties found in our unit.

Just as that gecko caused problems with our AC, there are factors causing the North Texas markets to shift. The sizzling markets of rapid price appreciation, low supply and short marketing times are cooling with supply and marketing times on the rise.

What is impacting our markets? Mortgage rates are certainly not causing them to slow. Mortgage rates decreased all of throughout the month of June. But what about affordability? The demand in our area brought about by immense population growth has caused prices to rise at a pace faster than the wages have risen. A recent study reveals that only around half of Americans can afford an entry-level home. Affordability inTexas has historically been greater than the US. However, the gap has been closing in. Affordability is becoming more of an issue in many areas of Texas and especially in the DFW metroplex. Homes are beginning to stay on the market a bit longer, which is increasing the supply of homes available for buyers and in turn in bringing prices down. Sellers can no longer price to the sky and expect any and all to be able to afford it.

Today when I look at a snap snot of this area, the largest number is not the number of new listings or pendings but the number of price decreases. This means that sellers are having to come down a bit to meet the buyer. The slowing down of our markets do not indicate a crash but perhaps a more balanced market. Prices will need to match what buyers can afford.

So in our markets, median sales prices have increased nominally or are flat. Supply has increased as well as marketing times. Volume has decreased. All signs of a cooling market. Is affordability the “gecko” that is slowing down the markets? Take a look at this month’s numbers:

JUNE 2019
Denton County
$325,000 | 0.0%

Collin County
$355,000 | +2.4%

Dallas County
$269,900 | +5.6%

Tarrant County
$250,000 | +4.2%
JUNE 2019
Denton County
3.4 | +13.3%

Collin County
3.9 | +8.3%

Dallas County
3.4 | +21.4%

Tarrant County
2.5 | +4.2%
JUNE 2019
Denton County
24 | +60.0%

Collin County
28 | +75.0%

Dallas County
16 | +33.3%

Tarrant County
13 | +30.0%
JUNE 2019
Denton County
1,461 | -8.2%

Collin County
1,688 | -2.8%

Dallas County
2,203 | -12.8%

Tarrant County
2,608 | -7.6%

Feel free to click on all of the charts and get the numbers. You can see the changes that are occurring. They are not big, they are not drastic but they are enough to dampen the blazing markets that we have experienced the last five years. Of note, the Texas economy is very strong. Foreclosure rates are very minimal. People are staying in their homes longer than ever. We continue to grow as more jobs, homes, and people are headed our way. So, just maybe there is no “gecko” shorting out the system and making it unfunctional. Perhaps, home prices need to slow down and let wages catch up.

So I hope that your geckos are not shorting out your AC units and that you are able to find some great ways to cool off in the summer heat. In the meantime, if you have questions about our local real estate markets or appraisal services- reach out to us at www.dwslaterco.com

June Newsletter

Summer is here! The summer equinox has occurred. June 21st was the longest day of the year, well it was still 24 hours, but it is the day with the most sunlight. This day was also special to us personally as we had a son marry his bride on this special day! The wedding was beautiful and they were able to capture some beautiful sunset pics. We appreciate our clients who were accommodating, understanding and sent us well wishes while we were out of the office a few days for the wedding.

So what is going on in our markets? Buyers are gaining a little more leverage in North Texas. Home prices are still rising but at a slower pace. We have been reporting this for the past few months. What is becoming apparent is that homes are staying on the market longer and the supply is increasing. Mortgage rates continue to decline. Check out the stats and interactive charts we have in the monthly market updates below.

Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates
Current Mortgage Rates Per Freddie Mac http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/

We also wanted to share some exciting things going on in our area.

Monthly Market Updates

Median Sales Prices

MAY 2019
 

Denton County
$313,050 | +3.3%

Collin County
$335,000 | +3.1%

Dallas County
$241,500 | +2.8%

Tarrant County
$235,000 | +5.1%
The price appreciation has increased between 2.8% and 5.1% for all four counties.  

Median Price Per Square Foot

MAY 2019
 

Denton County
$138 | +3.0%

Collin County
$137 | +2.2%

Dallas County
$134 | +3.9%

Tarrant County
$121 | +6.1%
The price per square foot data is similar to the median sales price showing slight price appreciation in all four counties. 

Months Supply of Inventory

MAY 2019
 

Denton County
3.1 | +29.2%

Collin County
3.5 | +25.0%

Dallas County
3.0 | +25.0%

Tarrant County
2.3 | +15.0% 
As homes stay on the market longer, buyers gain a little more leverage in their ability to obtain more affordable housing. 

Median Days on Market

MAY 2019
 

Denton County
26 | +44.4%

Collin County
30 | +50.0%

Dallas County
19 | +35.7%

Tarrant County
16 | +23.1%
The number of days on the market has increased by double digits in all four counties. 

Volume

MAY 2019
 

Denton County
1,616 | +2.6%

Collin County
1,804 | +2.8%

Dallas County
2,600 | +3.4%

Tarrant County
2,792 | +1.6%
The number of sales has only increased nominally when compared to last year. 
 
 

Great Cycle Challenge

Great Cycle Challenge

Last month we shared that we are participating in the Great Cycle Challenge. We are finishing up this month but there is still time to be a part. We were honored to be featured on the Great Cycle Challenge page. The Great Cycle Challenge has 80,270 riders this year and so far we have raised $7,741,337 to go to cancer research. If you would like to help this worthy cause see below:

We wish you a great start of your summer and look forwarding to reporting back to you in July. If you are in need of a residential or commercial appraisal service please contact us at www.dwslaterco.com

May Newsletter- from Sports Car to Tractor

As we are now at the end of May, school is out and we are entering into summer. We hope that you had a meaningful and enjoyable Memorial Day weekend. The DFW markets are hot but flat. The spring and summer seasons are typically the hottest selling seasons compared to fall and winter. 2019 is no exception, however when comparing year over year numbers the markets are definitely slowing down. Prices were appreciating at sports car speed and now they are moving at “tractor pace”. When you live in the more rural parts of North Texas sometimes you get behind a tractor. You can’t pass and you wonder if you are moving at all. You can see the slowing pace of the YoY change in the median sales price for the month of April below.

Mortgage rates peaked in November and have been on the decline which has increased the number of refinances. Even with the lower rates, affordability becomes an issue as many buyers are becoming priced out of the market. Homes are staying on the market longer. The seller’s market is weakening and buyers are beginning to gain more leverage.

Freddie Mac Chart

Median Sales Price

APRIL 2019
Denton County
$315,000 | +0.6%

Collin County
$339,000 | +3.4%

Dallas County
$250,000 | +2.8%

Tarrant County
$240,000 | +2.1%
The median sales prices are just up slightly YoY- hence the “tractor pace”. 
 

Median Price Per Square Foot

APRIL 2019
 

Denton County
$140 | +1.4%

Collin County
$139 | +0.7%

Dallas County
$140 | +5.3%

Tarrant County
$124 | +4.2%
The price per square feet metrics are also showing nominal increases YoY. 

Days on Market

 
 
APRIL 2019
 

Denton County
51 | +18.6%

Collin County
59 | +25.5%

Dallas County
42 | +31.3%

Tarrant County
38 | +15.2%
The average number of days on the market has increased YoY, forcing sellers to lower their prices in order to sell. 

Months Supply of Inventory

APRIL 2019
 

Denton County
3.1 | +29.2%

Collin County
3.5 | +29.6%

Dallas County
3.1 | +29.2%

Tarrant County
2.1 | +10.5%
 
The supply is increasing moving us to a more balanced market.   Supply is between 2 and 3.5 months. 

Volume – Number of Sales

APRIL 2019
 

Denton County
1,367 | +6.8%

Collin County
1,503 | +4.9%

Dallas County
2,311 | +4.5%

Tarrant County
2,476 | +5.2%
The number of sales for April is still strong and increasing in all four counties. 

How to Prepare Your Home as You Age in Place

Check out our most recent blog post which is a guest post from Patrick Young. Do you know someone who is aging and might need some accommodations to their home? This post gives great tips on preparing your home as you age. If you would like to write a guest post for us, please email us at shannon@dwslaterco.com.

Great Cycle Challenge

This is our fourth year to participate in the Great Cycle Challenge for the month of June. We will ride 200 miles and are raising funds to help fight cancer. This year we are riding for our friend Mike who is in a very tough battle with esophageal cancer. We hate cancer and want to do what we can to help fight this disease. You can read more about our story and support our cause at with taxable donations to https://greatcyclechallenge.com/Riders/ShannonSlater

If you have questions or need appraisal services please contact us at www.dwslaterco.com.

Please note that the data above is from the NTREIS MLS database and Freddie Mac. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. For appraisal services please contact us at www.dwslaterco.com.