April showers bring May flowers- or so we’ve heard. This year it appears that our wet winter has brought beautiful April wildflowers to North Texas. The picture above is was taken in Pilot Point. The blooming of the bluebonnets in our area has been spectacular. If you are not from Texas you may not know that bluebonnets are the official state flower or the annual tradition of bluebonnet pictures. It seems that everyone seeks out the best fields of bluebonnets to take pics of the family or kids or pets and this year even the police got in on the tradition.
Speaking of traditions, it is springtime which is traditionally the strong selling season for our real estate markets. This year is no exception as the markets have heated up since last month. That said, when looking at the charts from the same time last year, we have definitely slowed down the pace. With the large population growth we’ve had (we’ve gained over 1 million in less than a decade) the large demand and limited supply caused prices to increase rapidly. That rapid pace has begun to slow as affordability has now become an issue for buyers. Mortgage interest rates which had dropped are now increasing again.
According to the Texas Housing Insights,
Texas housing sales increased 5.2 percent from January amid lower mortgage rates and decreased price pressure. Supply indicators were mixed with single-family construction permits and total housing starts stabilizing after a shaky end to 2018, but single-family private construction values continued to slide. On the demand side, the typical Texas home continued to average just 60 days on the market and sold above 95 percent of the original list price. Lower mortgage rates provided incentives for prospective purchasers, but housing affordability remained a challenge across the state. Overall, the healthy labor market, population growth, and the economic expansion supported strong housing demand.
Here are our numbers for this month. Remember to hover over the chart to see the numbers and trends:
$315,000 | -1.3%
$138 | +1.5%
1,289 | +3.6%
2.8 | +27.3%
The months supply of inventory is up from the same time last year in all four counties. It is noted that this is still an under supply as a more balanced market has 4-6 months of supply. This appears to be a trend to a more balanced market.
30 | +87.5%
Industrial or Retail? As we have seen the effects of online retail impact the brick and mortar stores, the demand for industrial space for online retailers continues to grow. This was an interesting read –Self-Storage: A Little Bit Industrial, A Little Bit Retail.
If you need an appraisal for industrial property, this is a service we provide. Contact us for more information.
In summary, our markets are still appreciating just at a slower pace. With demand still strong as a result of population growth and a strong economy the housing market is still strong. As interest rates begin to rise again and affordability prices some out of the market, the slowing has occurred.
We hope that you are enjoying your spring and we look forward to sharing you more real estate news and trends next month.
March, when days are getting long,
Let thy growing hours be strong
To set right some wintry wrong.
~Caroline May, 1887
The signs of seasonal change are here. Many of the trees have buds or flowers appearing. Our local Tulip Farm is open as some of the tulips have emerged. If you are in North Texas we highly recommend taking a trip to see the tulips. If you enjoy nature you will be thrilled as the bluebonnets are to be spectacular this year because of our rainy winter. Here is a list of great placed to see bluebonnets: 5 Great Places to See Beautiful Bonnets in Texas.
What about our real estate markets? Well as we have been reporting the DFW markets are slowing down. The median sales prices have moved up slightly or are flat. Prices have been appreciating at such a fast rate that the market is starting to become more balanced. There are more listings and they are staying on the market longer. This is good news for buyers.
Affordability has been declining since 2012, thus a slow down will help some who have been getting priced out of the market. We do not think that we are headed for a crash just a slow down as the rapid price appreciation we’ve seen in the last five years was unstainable. What goes up must eventually come down. Mortgage interest rates, which had climbed in November, then dropped are starting to trend back up.
Market Updates- Denton, Collin, Dallas & Tarrant Counties
** Make sure you hover over the charts to see all of the data**
$304,990 | +1.7%
The median sales price for single-family residences are almost flat in Denton and Collin Counties, they have decreased in Dallas County and had on a modest increase from the same time last year in Tarrant County.
$137 | +1.5%
The price per square foot metrics are also trending the same. They are flat in Dallas County, slight in Denton and Collin County and up 6.1% in Tarrant County. All of these trends are compared to the same time last year. There are slight increases from last month which is typical as prices begin to pick up as we head into the spring selling season.
2.8 | +40.0%
A definite indicator of a market slow down is an increase in supply. The increase has been double-digit percentages in all four counties. The supply is still three months or less- which is an undersupply. A four to six month supply is a more balanced market. The market is trending to a more balanced market as the supply increases. New construction has helped with the increase in supply.
894 | -7.9%
Volume in down in all four counties. It is typical for sale volume to be down in the winter months, however, these are down compared to last year.
Did you know that real estate appraisers are Rock Stars? Well at least this one is. Check out this fascinating read about appraising stigmatized properties in Rolling Stone Magazine.
Congratulations to the city of Plano, TX in Collin County. They were selected as the #1 Happiest City in America per Wallet Hub. Have you been to Plano lately? We certainly are happy when we visit Plano.
Since we also provide commercial appraisals as well as residential, we thought we would add a section to cover a little bit of commercial real estate news.
- CRE Nationally – Growth in U.S. commercial property prices slowed to the weakest annual pace in eight years in January, reported Real Capital Analytics, New York. Industrial properties were strong keeping it from slowing more. Just as we are seeing slowing in residential markets, the same holds true for CRE. Read more here.
- CRE Texas -The overall strong performance in the Texas economy translates into a positive outlook for the commercial real estate sector. The outlook for 2019 appears to be positive for commercial real estate due to the strength of the U.S. and Texas economies. According to Texas Real Estate Center Overall, the dollar volume of mortgage originations in the office sector has stabilized since 2015. While industrial borrowing showed little movement from the first half of 2017, dollar volume of mortgage originations increased sharply from 2016 to 2017. Over the long term, retail borrowing has declined in dollar value of mortgage originations; new loans on retail properties measured 70 percent lower than 2007. You can read the full report here.
- Industrial Strength– E-Commerce has supercharged the industrial sector. This was just one of the four takeaways From Marcus & Millichap’s 2019 Office and Industrial Forecast
We hope that you enjoyed this new format for the newsletter. Please let us know what you think! Also while you are here check out our latest posts:
- The Problems with the Price Per Square Foot Method– Do you use this method when determining the price or value of a home? Read this to find out how this method can lead you astray.
- A Market Advantage- Tips for Selling a Home in Winter– This is a guest post from contributor Patrick Young who is an advocate for people with disabilities. If you would like to submit a guest post just contact us at www.dwslaterco.com and let us know what you would like to write about and if it is relevant to our readers we will consider it.
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Here in North Texas, February is typically a mix of cold weather with a few “spring-like” days. It is a shorter month and it just seems to go by very quickly. We all enjoy some love for Valentines Day and some get an extra day off for President’s Day. We hope that you were able to enjoy both. As far as real estate markets, the word is slow. Not crashing, not breaking but definitely slowing the pace it has been at. The numbers we are giving you are from January as we wait each month until all of the data comes in. Sale prices are just slightly up or even flat from the same time last year and down from last month. Marketing times are lengthening and supplies are beginning to increase- moving to a more balanced market. It is typically slower in the winter months as prices and volume pick up in the spring. Spring looks to be slower than what we have had in the last 3-5 years. The market has just let off of the accelerator in DFW. Here’s a look at the current numbers as well as recent some snapshots of the market.
MAKE SURE TO HOVER OVER THE GRAPHS AS THEY ARE INTERACTIVE
|The median sales price for |
$299,990 | +2.0%
$314,990 | +1.6%
$215,000 | 0.0%
$220,000 | +3.3%
|The median price per square foot for single family homes in all four counties is up from the same time last year. Collin, Dallas & Tarrant counties are down from last month and Denton is flat month to month. Here are the YoY stats: |
$136 | +2.3%
$135 | +1.5%
$126 | +4.1%
$119 | +7.2%
|The supply of inventory for all four counties is increasing. All but Collin county increased month to month. There has been an increase in construction which has helped with the inventory. The official numbers for building permits |
2.8 | +47.4%
3.0 | +36.4%
2.7 | +35.0%
2.0 | +25.0%
|The volume is slowing down. In all four counties, the number of closed sales was down from the month before and all four counties are posting double-digit declines from the same time last year. Here are the YoY stats: |
686 | -14.7%
773 | -12.1%
1,270 | -14.0%
1,393 | -12.8%
|Current Market Activity – We thought we would share a little insight into what is currently occurring in the markets. This is a 24-hour snapshot of each county. You can see that all of them have just as many price decreases as listings with Collin and |
|We hope that you found this helpful. A reminder that these are general market trends and metrics. These may not apply to your specific property as there are so many different factors that impact the value of individual properties.|